Fertility rates have been plummeting for decades—an indication of a system in deep crisis.

Without immigration, an average rate of 2.1 children per woman is required to maintain a society’s population. From 1963 to 2023, the world fertility rate fell from its peak of 5.3 to just 2.2. Meanwhile, the United States hit a record low of 1.6 in 2024. Nearly every advanced capitalist country is now below replacement level.

Financial uncertainty

The rising costs of housing, healthcare, childcare, and education play a major role. In 2024, The Economic Policy Institute found that an average American family with two working parents needs an additional $26,900 per year—nearly 40% more income—in order to maintain their standard of living after the first child.

Capitalism primarily relies on individual domestic labor for child rearing. The burden still falls disproportionately on women, while all parents need to earn a wage to keep the household afloat. The nuclear family unit, a uniquely capitalist social structure, creates a contradiction between family vs. career or personal fulfillment.

But the crisis goes deeper than that. The postwar boom provided each generation with better living conditions than the one before. Now, 39% of Gen Z report feeling constantly uncertain about the future. The youngest generations face job insecurity, mountains of debt, and more anxiety about what’s to come than ever. Faced with such uncertainty about the future, many people think twice before bringing a new human being into this world.

A “labor supply” problem

A rapidly shrinking workforce and aging population will add pressure to the already declining global economy. The most extreme case so far is South Korea, a country sounding the alarm after recording their lowest-ever fertility rate of 0.72 in 2023. If the trend continues, they’re expected to lose half their population within 60 years.

For the ruling class, this represents a “labor supply problem,” as well as a strain on already heavily indebted state coffers to finance pensions, healthcare, and other vital components of the social safety net. For the working class it means intensification of exploitation. The capitalists will implement longer working hours, higher retirement ages, and cuts to welfare programs to keep their system limping along.

Capitalists can’t fix the problem

Having recognized this crisis, capitalist governments are powerless to solve it. The “One Big Beautiful Bill” increased the child tax credit from $2,000 to $2,200. It also created the “Trump Account,” which provides every American child born between 2025 and 2028 with $1,000 seed money invested in the stock market.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent boldly predicted that, “Assuming historical growth rates continue, a single $1,000 deposit into a Trump Account at birth should grow to an estimated amount of at least half a million dollars by the age of retirement” (our emphasis). This proposition assumes the US is on the cusp of another 60 years of economic boom and unrivaled global dominance—which flies in the face of reality. It also fails to account for the impending explosion of the stock market bubble.

But even the best capitalism can throw at this problem has failed to reverse or even slow down this trend. Singapore offers the most aggressive pro-natalist policies, at $8,500 for the first and second child, and $10,000 for every child after. Despite this, their fertility rate sits at 0.97 and falling.

The capitalist system demands new workers to exploit, but it’s incapable of supporting new families. This is a clear contradiction in capitalism’s ability to sustain its own conditions for production. This crisis points toward revolution, not despair.

When capitalism fails to maintain basic standards of living, the working class is compelled to change conditions for themselves. Only by eliminating private property will we be able to socialize childcare, healthcare, housing, and more. Only this can guarantee the material security people need to feel confident about raising children for millennia to come.