Not that long ago, Britain, France, and Germany were the most powerful imperialist countries in the world. But history has reduced them to second-rate powers, with faltering economies, declining influence on the world stage, and increasing political polarization. European capitalism is coming apart at the seams, and the perspective of a historic revival of the European class struggle is clearer than ever.
Decline and deindustrialization
Germany, the third-largest economy in the world and the industrial powerhouse of Europe, has entered its second year of economic recession. Manufacturing production has declined by 15% since 2017—in a country that is highly dependent on exports. Over 46% fewer cars were produced in Germany in 2021 compared to 2016. The German ruling class is ringing the alarm bells about the severe risk and consequences of deindustrialization. In a December article on the German economy’s “unraveling,” Bloomberg starkly warned that “high energy costs and slumping exports have made German households €2,500 poorer and the decline threatens to become irreversible.”
A huge part of this stems from the West’s sanctions on Russia, which had been supplying cheap gas to German industry prior to the conflict in Ukraine. In 2022, NATO goaded Ukraine into an unwinnable proxy-war with Russia, largely due to the US imperialists’ mistaken calculation that it would bring down Putin. Though it was an act of self-sabotage, the European imperialists went along with it, even though it has massively expedited the decline of the German economy in particular.
The situation is not fundamentally better in the other major economies of Europe. France, saddled by debt and facing its own painful decline, lags behind Germany, which in turn lags behind the US and China. Britain, meanwhile, has seen decades of exceptionally low capital investment and productivity growth. In the last decade, British workers have seen the biggest decline in real wages since the Napoleonic Wars.
Collapse of the center
As in the United States, this economic instability and decline is leading to political polarization and extreme discontent with the establishment parties. As of December, French President Emmanuel Macron had an approval rating of 19%, while German Chancellor Olaf Scholz had 18% approval. Just six months into the job, Keir Starmer’s approval rating in Britain sits at 30%.
Germany’s ruling coalition collapsed in November, followed by a collapse of the French government in December—the first time a French government has collapsed since 1962. In both cases, debates over austerity budgets prompted the implosion. The ruling class is increasingly divided over how to confront the crisis.
Also as in the United States, right-wing demagogues at the head of parties like Alternative for Germany (AfD), the National Rally in France, and the Freedom Party in Austria—are gaining popularity all over Europe. This is due to the impotent cowardice of the reformist left. There is enormous social discontent that could be channeled to the left, but the “left” is totally subservient to the capitalist parties, ceding the ground for the right-wing parties to pose as “anti-establishment.”
France, saddled by debt and facing its own painful decline, lags behind Germany, which in turn lags behind the US and China. / Image: In Defence of Marxism
The program of the European bourgeoisie
To compete with the US and China, the European imperialists need massive investment in infrastructure, armaments, digital technologies, and other key industries. In a widely discussed September report on “the future of European competitiveness,” Mario Draghi suggested that an extra €750–800 billion must be invested in key European industries each year if it is to remain in the global mix.
This will require significant state spending, since private companies will not achieve this on their own. As always, the capitalists will make the working class foot the bill. They will need to increase the rate of exploitation of the European working class. This is why a centerpiece of their political program is to attack the working class’s living standards and working conditions.
For the past year, the European bourgeoisie has been busy preparing public opinion for this. In May, the President of the Confederation of German Employers’ Associations (BDA) complained that Germans don’t talk enough about “the value of work.” Emphasizing the need to make Germany attractive for business again, he explained “we will all have to work more and longer.” French Finance Minister, Antoine Armand, likewise whined in November about how “On average, a French person works clearly less than his neighbors, over the course of a year.” And shortly after taking office last year, Keir Starmer warned that the upcoming state budget would be “painful,” and that “things will get worse before we get better.” All of this is bound to provoke a fightback by the working class.
The reformists in the United States, who frequently point to European social democracy as their ideal, could stand to learn from this. The European labor movement won certain gains in the past, but now that world capitalism is facing a severe crisis, the ruling class is preparing to claw them back.
For a United Socialist States of Europe
There is no future for Europe under the historically exhausted capitalist system. Only a socialist revolution can take society forward. The working class alone can unify the continent and utilize its resources for human need, rather than for profit.
A preview of the future of Europe can be seen in the wave of class struggle in recent years, for instance, the semi-insurrectionary “yellow vests” movement in France 2018, the 2022–23 strike wave in Britain, and the 2023–24 strike wave in Germany. These struggles showed the way forward, but to succeed in overthrowing capitalism altogether, the European working class requires a genuine communist leadership. The European sections of the Revolutionary Communist International, many of which founded new parties in the last year, are working day-by-day to build such a leadership.
Class-conscious workers and young people in America are watching the building of these parties with great interest as we fight here to overthrow American capitalism.