In his famous work Imperialism: The Highest Stage of Capitalism, Lenin wrote:

Finance capital is interested not only in the already discovered sources of raw materials but also in potential sources, because present-day technical development is extremely rapid … This also applies to prospecting for minerals, to new methods of processing up and utilizing raw materials, etc., etc. Hence, the inevitable striving of finance capital to enlarge its spheres of influence and even its actual territory.

The potential exists for workers to plan and create a world of automation and superabundance. But so long as capitalism exists, the imperialist vultures can only offer barbarism, war, and environmental destruction in their relentless quest for profits.

The future of technology hinges on dozens of minerals that are essential for everything from smartphones to weapons. AI data centers alone could require 200,000 metric tons of copper annually between 2025 and 2028. 91% of US Navy systems and 78% of Department of Defense weapons depend on critical elements like antimony, gallium, germanium, tungsten, and tellurium.

The potential profits are enormous. Copper hit a record high of $11,000 per metric ton in 2024. Pentagon mineral contracts have grown 23% a year since 2010. The capitalists are salivating over the spoils, and it’s no surprise these minerals play a central role in the US-China trade war.

US imperialism playing catch up

After “Liberation Day,” China restricted exports of seven rare earth elements (REEs) which are vital for manufacturing advanced weapons. This shook the American military establishment, which is waking up to just how dominant China is in mineral production. A Department of Defense study recently identified $2.41 billion in mineral shortfalls for 69 defense materials and $12 billion more for civilian production.

China mines 70% of REEs and has 91% of global refining capacity. In contrast, the US is totally dependent on imports for 12 of 50 critical minerals and over 50% reliant for another 29. China is the world’s top producer for 29 of these.

A 30% reduction in gallium supply could cost the US $602 billion—2.2% of GDP. The US imported 100% of its graphite in 2022, with nearly a third coming from China, and the Pentagon classifies 88% of its critical mineral supply chains as “exposed to Chinese influence.”

In search of cheap labor and higher profits, American capitalists have hollowed out the country’s industrial capability. For example, the US led the world in zinc processing in the 1950s. Now it produces just 6%, while China produces 33%. America was once the top uranium producer. Now it imports its entire supply, including some from Russia.

Flashpoints in the global mineral war

The US imperialists are desperate to reassert control—and mineral-rich nations are in the crosshairs. For example, they cut a mineral deal with Ukraine on April 30, which holds 117 of the 120 most-used industrial minerals. However, most are located in territory claimed and occupied by Russia.

The Trump administration dangled the promise of more weapons and money for Ukraine’s hopelessly doomed war effort and secured a deal giving US corporations 50% of future Ukrainian mining revenue. In other words, the imperialists are prolonging the senseless slaughter in the mere hope of paydirt.

Other hot spots include Greenland and Canada—which explains Trump’s mania for annexing Greenland and making Canada the 51st state. Both hold massive REE deposits, and Canada is the second-largest uranium producer. Kazakhstan, the world’s largest uranium supplier, mainly exports to Russia and China.

For 29 years, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has been gripped by a never-ending cycle of violence, instability, and plunder—largely driven by imperialism’s insatiable thirst for the country’s rich mineral deposits. In April, Washington announced a phony imperialist “peace” deal between DRC and Rwanda which will, at best, result in a brief pause before the bloodshed resumes.

That same month, Trump signed an executive order encouraging deep sea mining, and conflict over undersea mineral claims may erupt. As the Center for Strategic and International Studies noted, “The race to mine the deep sea is on, and conflict in international waters over disputed resources is likely on the horizon.”

Absolutely none of this is a sure thing for American imperialism. Such projects require huge amounts of capital investment and often involve building new mines from scratch in regions where mineral wealth is only “estimated” and unconfirmed. In Greenland, harsh weather and icy surfaces add to the challenges. As for the US, it takes an average of 29 years to build a mine.

While China dominates refining, it still imports raw materials from Australia, India, Thailand, the DRC, and Myanmar. Myanmar, like the DRC, has been plagued by civil war—in part because of imperialist competition over minerals. In Myanmar, China supports both the military dictatorship and several competing guerrilla groups in order to ensure its access to minerals.

The decline of the US relative to China is a fact, but the US imperialists will do their damndest to stay on top—no matter the cost to humanity.

Fight imperialism with socialist revolution

It comes as no surprise that environmental sustainability doesn’t figure in the imperialists’ calculations. This is the hypocrisy behind the “green” energy transition. A decade ago, tech billionaires were hailed as climate saviors. But the technologies they rely on depend on environmentally destructive extraction processes.

Take Canada’s Ring of Fire, a pristine swamp and forest serving as a vital carbon sink. Beneath it lie $67 billion in rare earth minerals. The capitalists are plotting to dig it up, releasing untold amounts of carbon and methane into the atmosphere.

Environmental destruction, worldwide bloodletting, and economic instability are not isolated problems. They are products of the capitalist system—a system that puts entire nations in the crosshairs of imperialist predators. The solution is not to pick sides between rival imperialists, but to fight for a socialist future—in which the world’s resources are democratically planned and controlled by the working class in the interests of humanity and the planet.