Editorial for issue 18 of The Communist. Subscribe now or get a copy from Marxistbooks.com!

As jack-o’-lanterns give way to Christmas lights, millions of anxious minds wonder what 2026 has in store. One thing is clear: the economic barometer is falling, indicating storms ahead.

Prices are on the rise again, as companies exhaust their pre-tariff-war stockpiles. At time of writing, up-to-date statistics tracking inflation are unavailable due to the government shutdown. But nobody who’s visited a grocery store recently is in any doubt. Banana prices are up 6.9%, Beef is up 12.9%, and coffee has surged by 18.9%.

It’s no wonder that a recent Economist/YouGOV poll shows only 30% of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of inflation and prices, while 64% disapprove. Surging prices are a serious threat to a president who returned to power riding a wave of discontent over Biden-era inflation.

Job losses

Adding to the economic unease, nearly a million American workers have lost their jobs so far in 2025. UPS is laying off 48,000 workers. In October, Amazon cut 14,000 jobs—the largest layoff in the company’s history. Amazon insiders warn that many more will follow.

And these companies aren’t alone. The Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act requires big companies to give 60-days advanced written notice of mass layoffs. No fewer than 117 companies have filed WARN notices, indicating they plan to cut jobs in November, including Google, John Deere, Microsoft, Oracle, Perdue Foods, Quest Diagnostics, Target, and Wells Fargo.

The holiday season is normally a boom time for retail and travel. The spate of late-year layoffs is just one indication that the capitalists are worried about their short-term profits. In fact, analysts predict that US retailers will take on fewer seasonal employees in 2025 than any year since 2009.

“Since 2009”

The phrase “since 2009”—harkening back to world capitalism’s deepest crisis since the Great Depression—is a constant refrain in the business press. Fewer workers have been hired so far this year than any time since 2009. Unsold inventory of new houses is at its highest level since 2009. The average FICO credit score has dropped three points since 2023, the biggest two-year decline since 2009.

In a country with abysmal public transportation, where car ownership is a necessity for workers in all but a few large cities, auto repossessions have surged to their highest level since 2009. Repo men have already seized more than 2.2 million cars, and that figure is expected to surpass three million before the year is out.

Is there any respite from the “since 2009” mania? The only apparent difference are those figures that are already worse than during the Great Recession. For example, Fitch Ratings reports that the percentage of subprime borrowers who are at least 60 days behind on their car loans has reached 6.43%. That’s double what it was four years ago, and higher than during any of the last three recessions—the Covid pandemic, the Great Recession, and the dot-com bust.

Doom and gloom

The deteriorating economic outlook only adds to the pervasive sense of pessimism and malaise that has gripped America since 2008. The US fertility rate is just one indication. It fell to around 1.6 live births per woman in 2025—down from nearly 3.7 at the height of the postwar boom in 1960—and well below the “replacement rate” of 2.1 needed to maintain the current population.

Meanwhile, many of those who have managed to be born are seriously considering an early departure from this vale of tears. OpenAI recently reported that more than a million people discuss suicide with ChatGPT every week.

In fact, if not for immigration, America would already be facing a demographic catastrophe. However, according to a study by the American Enterprise Institute, a right-wing think tank, more foreign-born people are likely to leave the country than enter it this year. That hasn’t happened in nearly a century.

Sounding the alarm

Workers aren’t the only ones feeling gloomy. Increasingly, the ruling class and its hangers-on are waking up to the threat of an economic meltdown.

The recent bankruptcies of autoparts manufacturer First Brands and subprime auto lender Tricolor have shined a spotlight on the “shadow banking” sector, which sprung up in response to the tightening of banking regulations after 2008. “My antenna goes up when things like that happen. I probably shouldn’t say this, but when you see one cockroach, there are probably more.” So said Jamie Dimon, chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, commenting on the Tricolor collapse, which may end up costing his bank $170 million.

He’s not the only one sounding the alarm. Gita Gopinath, the former chief economist of the IMF, predicts that the bursting of the AI bubble alone could wipe out $35 trillion of wealth from the world economy. Gopinath warns that the fallout from the AI bubble will be much worse than the dot-com bubble a quarter century ago:

“​​Unlike in 2000, growth faces strong headwinds, whipped up by America’s tariffs, Chinese critical-mineral export controls, and growing uncertainty about where the global economic order is heading. With government debt levels at record highs the ability to use fiscal stimulus, as was done in 2000 . . . would be limited.”

To paraphrase the old gospels, none shall know the day or hour. But regardless of when exactly it arrives, a major economic crisis is looming. When it hits, it will affect mass consciousness even more dramatically than the 2008 crash.

Trump’s warmongering in Latin America continues. He wants to roll back China’s growing influence in a region, which the American imperialists have always considered their “backyard.” / Image: RCA

Ruling class preparations

Someone will have to pay for this crisis, and the ruling class wants to make sure it’s us. How is the class enemy preparing? By intensifying its war on the working class, both at home and abroad.

Trump’s warmongering in Latin America continues. He wants to roll back China’s growing influence in a region, which the American imperialists have always considered their “backyard.” For months, he’s been obliterating small boats, claiming—without evidence—that the victims are narco-traffickers. In reality, they’re most likely fishermen or low-level smugglers. Either way, the strikes amount to nothing less than cold-blooded murder.

Now he’s assembling an armada in the Caribbean, spearheaded by the USS Gerald Ford, the largest warship ever constructed. His targets are Colombia, formerly the US’s most reliable retainer in South America, and Venezuela, where a series of failed US-backed coups since 2002 have been a black eye for American imperialism. Ultimately, he hopes to disrupt BRICS and secure access to Venezuela’s vast oil reserves in advance of a new Israeli offensive in the Middle East, which could push oil prices sky high.

Trump’s attacks on the working class at home are intensifying in parallel with his maneuvers abroad. November 1 saw breadlines swell nationwide, as SNAP benefits were cut off due to the government shutdown.

Meanwhile, in cities like Portland, Chicago, and New York, ICE is ramping up its campaign of terror against immigrant workers. Trump has no illusions that he can deport all of the estimated 14 million undocumented workers in the US. He knows that the capitalist class relies on exploiting their cheap labor.

But by sending ICE to kick down doors and drag naked children through the streets, Trump hopes immigrant workers will be too frightened to fight back against their appalling wages and conditions. In turn, the existence of an especially vulnerable and terrorized section of the working class drives down wages and conditions for all workers, regardless of immigration status.

How can workers prepare?

All indications are that the working class is spoiling for a fight. While liberal scaremongers see Trump’s immigration crackdowns as the first step towards impending dictatorship, workers across America have shown a fearless willingness to stand up to ICE. Far from being decisively crushed, the working-class movement has barely started to flex its muscles. So far, resistance to the raids has been sporadic and uncoordinated—but that, too, will turn into its opposite.

As the ruling class continues its preparations for the titanic class battles to come, so must the working class prepare for an intense period of struggle. Above all, that means organizing the most advanced workers to build a fighting communist party that can help guide and direct the struggle towards its ultimate victory: the revolutionary overthrow of capitalism.