The western imperialist vultures are circling the Iranian regime. Donald Trump has already threatened to intervene in Iran three times since the protests began. Meanwhile, the Israeli state has sent ominous messages through Mossad’s Farsi X account, including: “Let’s come out to the streets together. The time has come. We are with you. Not just from afar and verbally. We are with you in the field as well.”

Western imperialism is the most reactionary force in the world. They have laid waste to swaths of the Middle East and now threaten to do the same with Iran.

It has been over sixteen days since protests broke out in Iran. But since Thursday evening, the regime has shut down the internet. The last reports were that there were protests in forty-six towns and cities and a near complete bazaar strike in the Kurdish region, spreading even to Tabriz, Tehran, Kermanshah, and other cities.

The sporadic reports that have come out since the internet blackout show absolute chaos, with scenes of violent confrontations with security forces. Massive crowds could be seen in Tehran, Karaj (a major industrial city near Tehran), Mashhad, and others, including the Kurdish towns of Saqqez, Abdalan, and more. The youth have once again set up barricades and fires in the streets and attacked symbols of the regime, such as the barracks, official offices, and so on.

The regime’s disconnection of the internet shows its clear decision to turn to deadly suppression and to eliminate any witnesses. HRANA has confirmed 544 dead—although the real figure is most likely much higher. These figures are based on reports from hospital workers and are credible. Meanwhile, over 10,681 have been arrested. Prior to the internet being turned off, only a few dozen had been killed. Now there is a report that in Tehran alone, 200 people have been killed. While it’s difficult to verify at this time, this is a rapid escalation and would make it the most deadly repression since the wave of uprisings, strikes, and protests began in 2018.

The situation was already tense prior to Thursday. In towns such as Qazvin, Bojnourd, Hamedan, and others, the protests were taking on much greater dimensions. The same is true to an even greater extent in the Kurdish provinces. In the towns of Ilam and Abdalan, protesters temporarily pushed out the security forces. In Ilam, the masses declared a teenager participating in the protests as the new governor in mockery of the regime.

In the Kurdish town of Saqqez—hometown of the murdered Mahsa Amini, whose death sparked the 2022 uprising—street clashes broke out on Wednesday night in anticipation of a general strike of the bazaars in the Kurdish areas.

In the cities, such as Tehran, Mashhad, Kermanshah, and others, there were street protests. But these quickly turned into scattered street fights. The working class in the cities are not participating en masse in the same way that we see in the provinces and smaller towns. They are fearful, despite their hatred of the regime, because they see no clear revolutionary alternative, only the threat of imperialist intervention.

It is also significant to note that the first protests began breaking out in the provinces of Khuzestan and Bushehr just before the internet went down. The bazaars of Ahwaz and Abadan, both in Khuzestan, joined the bazaar strike and street protests, which turned into scattered clashes with the security forces.

These are important provinces with major petrochemical installations. During the unprecedented period of class struggle since 2018, they have been a focal point of class struggle, with near-yearly oil worker strikes and major uprisings and protests. In Bandar Kangan, a small group of oil workers on strike over economic demands even joined the protests.

It is likely that, in the major cities and in Khuzestan, large protests have broken out possibly involving working-class youths. In the Kurdish towns, it is possible that the youth have managed to push out the regime’s forces from their towns and villages. During the 2022 uprising, the regime lost control of Kurdish towns for three months, creating a situation akin to civil war.

Now, as in 2022, it is only the working class which can strike a decisive blow to turn a youth uprising into a real revolution.

The imperialist media circus and the threat of military intervention

Meanwhile, as the Iranian masses bleed and sacrifice their lives, the western imperialists smell an opportunity to weaken or even destroy their rival in the Middle East. Nearly every major western bourgeois politician has declared their solidarity with the Iranian masses. This is sickening hypocrisy. US-led sanctions are, alongside the exploitation of the regime, responsible for the economic misery of the masses.

These imperialist savages make the most ridiculous claims about the ongoing protests. On January 9, Donald Trump shared a claim from Israel’s Channel 13 on Truth Social: “More than one million people demonstrated: Iran’s second-largest city has fallen under protesters’ control, regime forces have left the city.” Mashhad has a population of 2.4 million and, at the time, the protests involved at most tens of thousands scattered across the massive city.

Even the Israeli Foreign Ministry’s Farsi X account posted: “Qom, Mashhad, Tehran, Dezful—all of Iran will soon belong to the Iranian people.” They don’t care about the truth or the Iranian masses. They see the movement of the Iranian people as a mere chess piece in their struggle for dominance in the Middle East.

The imperialist press are repeating every exaggeration because they are both incompetent and servile. This includes echoing the reactionary Iranian monarchists led by Reza Pahlavi, former crown prince and son of the pro-western Shah overthrown by the 1979 Iranian revolution. Amidst the ongoing protests, Reza Pahlavi has been interviewed in the Washington Post and the Wall Street Journal. This is nothing new and has been ongoing since 2022, while the genuine voices of the Iranian masses are silenced.

The various foreign Farsi news outlets financed by Saudi, American, and British imperialism, like BBC Persian, Iran International, Manato, and Radio Farda, are no better. Iran International is the worst and biggest of them. It openly supports the Iranian monarchists and military intervention.

The imperialists and their prostitute press are laying the ground for a possible military intervention in Iran. Again, this is nothing new, especially since the war in Gaza began. American imperialism has never forgiven the Iranian masses for the 1979 revolution. It wants its colonial possession back. Israel wants to ensure its dominance over the Middle East.

Trump has called a cabinet meeting on Tuesday to discuss options for intervention. But that path is littered with problems: full military invasion is impossible. Iran is massive and extremely mountainous. Nearly every city lies in a valley. There is also the possibility that the Iranian masses will rally to defend the nation against a foreign invasion. There is a powerful, deep-rooted hatred of western imperialism in Iran, tracing back through more than a century of struggle.

Even aerial strikes would be risky. The regime has promised to retaliate. Backed into a corner, the regime won’t hesitate to strike Israel and possibly even US military bases. This would be unlike the 12-Day War, when the regime, seeking to avoid an escalation, used its oldest ballistic missiles against Israel and avoided attacking US bases. Even then, that limited strike caused serious damage. But faced with an Iranian regime fighting for its life, the US would be facing a different proposition.

Reza Pahlavi and the monarchist clowns

The imperialists have another option: Reza Pahlavi, who in 2022 appointed himself leader of the opposition. An Iranian-American think tank, the National Union for “Democracy” in Iran (NUFDI), has published a detailed plan whereby he is supposed to lead “the transition to democracy.” According to this plan, Reza Pahlavi is to run the transitional government, with complete control over the appointment of members of the transitional parliament and judiciary (literally named “the royal court.”)

His supporters point to Reza Pahlavi’s promises of a referendum and a constituent assembly as evidence of his democratic credentials.

In 1979, the Islamists too declared themselves the leaders of the revolution. They even received aid, at first, from the western imperialists, who sought to control the situation, and later from the remnants of the Pahlavi state, who were trying to save themselves. They too elected a constituent assembly and held a referendum in March 1979. But this was just a democratic cover. Once the regime had consolidated power, the left-wing—isolated largely due to their terrible, Stalinist mistakes—were massacred.

Reza Pahlavi’s economic program is simple: massive privatizations, including of Iran’s natural resources (presumably excluding oil), and opening up Iran for foreign imperialism. This would serve the interests of his imperialist masters and their Iranian puppets.

Meanwhile, who is Reza Pahlavi to bring the cronies of the Islamic Republic to justice? He and the rest of the old Pahlavi regime have committed terrible crimes against the Iranian masses, for example, stealing billions of dollars when they fled the country—the Pahlavis alone took $2 billion. Expropriations and justice would be a terrible precedent for them.

Premature fantasies of assuming power aside—which would be met with extreme resistance—Reza Pahlavi’s only real activity as “leader” has been taking credit for the struggle of the Iranian masses. The current escalation, for example, including the Kurdish general strike, was not called by the shah’s son, but by the Kurdish communist parties, which still have authority in the region.

The same is true of the calls for a general strike both now and in 2022. Workers, communists, and Kurds are the last people to take orders from a Pahlavi. His father was a Persian supremacist who put down multiple Kurdish uprisings and executed, imprisoned, and tortured communists.

Reza Pahlavi, like his father, is also a loyal bootlicker of western imperialism. Hoping to ingratiate himself and be recognized as “leader,” he thanked Donald Trump. But when Trump was asked whether he was going to meet with Pahlavi, he responded: “I think that we should let everybody go out there and see who emerges. I’m not sure necessarily that it would be an appropriate thing to do.”

There are plenty of Republicans who are gung-ho for regime change and back the Pahlavis. But Trump’s reticence to recognize Pahlavi shows the wariness that exists among a big part of the US ruling class against giving full backing to Pahlavi. He could only come to power on the back of US intervention. And they have seen in Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan what that can mean: it poses the danger of chaos, state collapse, and even civil war, with all the implications that would have for US regional interests and the world economy.

While he might not be formally recognized by Trump, the USA is home to most of the exiled Pahlavi elite, who have significant allies in the elite of the Republican Party.

Pahlavi later backtracked, clarifying he doesn’t endorse military intervention by Trump. But he later changed his views again, and, on January 9, called for an intervention while speaking to Donald Trump. This has always been the aim of his groveling to the imperialists, just not always completely openly. The Iranian masses understand this. Even when he called for an uprising during the 12-Day War, everyone in Iran ignored him. The overwhelming majority rightly considered him a traitor.

His most loyal patrons are Israel and Benjamin Netanyahu. Reza Pahlavi visited Israel in 2023, and members of the monarchist lobby group National Union for Democracy in Iran regularly visit Israel. The Israeli newspaper Haaretz has exposed how, from 2022, the Israeli state has supported the monarchists with bots, infiltration through Telegram and other social media platforms, and so on. The truth is that this relationship most likely goes much deeper. This heavy assistance—along with the absolute desperation of the masses—explains why the monarchists have suddenly become more prevalent in the streets.

The Iranian masses have repeatedly made it clear that they want nothing to do with Reza Pahlavi or the imperialists. Most recently, the Haft Tappeh Sugarcane Workers’ Union, a militant trade union which led a struggle for workers’ control and has consistently supported every uprising, wrote the following in a statement:

The Pahlavis can count on capitalism, but the workers and people who want freedom and equality cannot. The Shah worshippers, Imam worshippers, and idol worshippers can go and lie and spread fake news in rented media, they insult the intelligence of the people and blur the line between truth and lies. But the world is not faked, only the liars who have no reputation will increase.

The Workers’ Union of Tehran and Suburbs Bus Company write the following:

We have said many times and we repeat it again: the path to the liberation of workers and toilers does not lie in the path of a leader carved from above the people, nor in reliance on foreign powers, nor through factions within the government, but rather in the path of unity, solidarity, and the creation of independent organizations in the workplace and on a national level. We must not allow ourselves to be victims of the power games and interests of the ruling classes once again.

The Syndicate also strongly condemns any propaganda, justification, or support for military intervention by foreign governments, including the United States and Israel. Such interventions not only lead to the destruction of civil society and the killing of people, but also provide another excuse for the continuation of violence and repression by the government. Past experiences have shown that Western domineering governments do not place the slightest value on the freedom, livelihood, and rights of the Iranian people.

The students in Iran, both now and in 2022, have consistently spread the slogan: “Death to all tyrants—be they shah or mullahs.” The Kurdish youth and other communists have their own variant: “We don’t want the shah or mullahs but rule by soviets.”

This points precisely to how the revolution can be completed. The working class of Iran must take power into its own hands, which can only be through soviets or similar organizations (referred to in the 1979 revolution as “shurahs.”) However, at this moment, soviets or shurahs do not yet exist. The slogan must be to first form soviets or shurahs.

The slogan of soviets (or “shurahs,” defense committees, strike committees, neighborhood committees, etc.) must in turn be linked to a clear program of class demands. The workers need soviets as the most effective organizations through which they can win their demands and carry on the struggle to bring down the regime. It won’t be by proclamation, but rather by the action of the working class that shurahs will be formed once the workers are drawn into the struggle.

The dominant slogans in the ongoing protests are economic, such as “Death to high prices!” and “Poverty, corruption, high prices: we will overthrow you!”, along with democratic, anti-regime slogans such as “freedom, freedom, freedom,” “Death to Khamenei/the dictator/the entire system/the Islamic Republic!”, and “Khamenei is a murderer, his rule is illegitimate!”

There are monarchists in Iran, but they are a tiny minority of lunatic petty bourgeois, and possibly even lumpen proletarians. They do strange stunts, like, for example, placing a new road sign over Ghorji Street (formerly Eisenhower Street), changing its name to “Donald Trump Street,” following the example of their overlord Reza Pahlavi, who was photographed with a sign praising Trump.

In the West, equally deranged monarchists hold rallies and fly Israeli, American, and monarchist Iranian flags (even at times the Derafsh Kaviani, the Iranian flag from late antiquity) alongside portraits of the Shah and even Donald Trump. Like their shah, some of them slavishly imitate Trump’s slogan from the 12-Day War, “make Iran great again,” in an attempt to flatter him.

The lack of a mass base has not stopped Reza Pahlavi and his lunatic supporters in the diaspora from spreading fake protest videos, some with edited slogans, and others entirely fabricated with AI. Although a few such videos could be genuine, the level of misinformation makes it difficult to know what is real or fake, with X and Instagram flooded with monarchist nonsense. With even western media circulating fakes, the only reliable sources are Iran-based Telegram channels run by the revolutionary youth and workers themselves.

Hands off Iran! Death to tyrants—be it the Shah or mullahs!

All of this only serves as ammunition for the Islamic Republic. The regime claims the protests are a foreign infiltration. They have even live-streamed false confessions from supposed monarchists. Although many of these have been debunked, it has an effect.

By exploiting the genuine fears of the masses, the regime was capable of mobilizing thousands for a pro-regime protest in the major city of Isfahan prior to the internet blackout. With a three-day mourning period and new pro-regime rallies called on Sunday, we await to see their strength.

The intervention of the West and the monarchists causes confusion among the masses. They remember the Shah’s regime, a brutal dictatorship where they had no democratic rights; a regime plagued by extreme inequality and corruption; a regime which allowed the imperialists to plunder Iran.

The masses correctly understand that the imperialists want to return Iran to its servile status. They see the horror that imperialism has inflicted on the region: the poverty; the destruction of Iraq, Syria, and Yemen; the genocide of the Palestinians, and so on.

The confusion thus generated creates a chaotic situation on the streets, creating a fearful mood among some layers, dampening the protests, giving the regime an opening to come in with brutal repression. The lack of any clear leadership has made this chaos possible. Had a revolutionary leadership already been formed, the Iranian masses would have been able to overthrow the Islamic Republic multiple times since 2018. Instead, the class struggle has been prolonged into a bloody and brutal affair.

Iranian revolutionaries must rapidly build a clear revolutionary alternative with a program for linking up with the Iranian working class, which is completely class independent. Such a program would base itself on the political and economic demands raised since 2018.

In the absence of such a leadership, the situation can rapidly get worse. A military intervention against the regime would be a disaster for the masses, but it is unclear if it would even succeed in dislodging the regime. Another possibility is a palace coup by elements of the regime trying to save themselves.

Irrespective of how exactly events develop, it is clear that the Islamic Republic’s days are numbered. The situation has been unsustainable since 2018, with constant strikes and economic protests and violent youth uprisings, with hundreds killed and thousands arrested every other year. But the imperialist threat and lack of a clear revolutionary alternative has not only turned the overthrow of the regime into a bloody affair, but now threatens the dismemberment of Iran as a nation, the plunder of the country, and other horrors.

Even if the regime is overthrown, it is not enough to change the people in charge. The problem is not mullahs or Pahlavis. They are just factions of the same parasitical ruling class. Iranian capitalism, because of its backwardness, has repeatedly recreated the conditions for dictatorship and poverty. Only the seizure of power by the working class can bring an end to this cycle.

Iranian communists must prepare the ground for a revolutionary communist party which, once the regime falls, must rapidly grow. Meanwhile, the working class in the imperialist countries of the West must use its position and strength to prevent a new imperialist adventure in Iran. It is the duty of communists in the West therefore to energetically expose their own ruling class.