The unprovoked war of aggression by the US and Israel against Iran has set the Middle East on fire.

The world’s most reactionary power and its regional attack dog are once again killing and maiming thousands of innocent men, women, and children. The resulting closure of the Strait of Hormuz may well drag the world economy into a cataclysmic depression.

US imperialism is now faced with the prospect of another “forever war” that it can neither win nor afford. If defeated, it risks having its bases ejected from the Persian Gulf region altogether. This conflict marks a turning point in the accelerating decline of US imperialism.

A crumbling colossus

For many decades, the US policed the globe as the hegemon of world capitalism. Its supremacy in industry, finance, trade, research, engineering, energy, diplomacy, and military might was the lynchpin of world relations.

But nothing lasts forever. The rise of China and the resurgence of Russia have ended the era of unipolar dominance that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union. Trump’s impossible challenge is to slow down US imperialism’s decline on the world stage while preparing for a decisive showdown against China. His war on Iran can only be understood as a function of the conflict between the US on one side, and China and Russia on the other.

In recent decades, Russian and Chinese imperialism have developed close ties with Tehran. Russia is in a strategic partnership with Iran for defense, energy, and trade. In this conflict, it is providing key intelligence, technical support, supplies, equipment, and weapons to Iran. For its part, China is heavily involved in Iranian infrastructure projects as part of a cooperation agreement between the two countries. It also exports more commodities to Iran than any other country, and purchases 90% of the oil Iran exports.

The struggle for control of the global energy market is a primary theater in the world’s main imperialist rivalry. It’s no coincidence that three recent targets of US aggression have been BRICS-aligned “petrostates”—Russia, Venezuela, and Iran—which together provided China with a third of its oil. But the window to inflict a lethal blow on China by cutting off this resource is closing rapidly. It is already 85% energy independent, and has fast tracked its path to energy self-sufficiency.

America’s rivals are ramping up their military and industrial might. Time is not on the side of US imperialism.

Bipartisan policy

The imperialists’ longstanding strategy for keeping the US dominant broadly consists of the following: keep the Eurasian landmass (Russia, China, India, etc.) divided; prevent a hostile coalition from rising to challenge US primacy; and retain a grip on the Middle East as a strategic energy and trade corridor, as well as to weaken Russia and China. This is one reason the US-Israeli relationship has been treated as untouchable—letting go of it would mean ceding a key region to the rival block.

This war represents the culmination of decades of imperialist policy, not just the whims of Trump or Netanyahu. Regardless of the intentions and campaign promises of this or that Democrat or Republican president, the real thread of continuity from one administration to the next is determined by the “Great Game” of the 21st century.

George W. Bush initially ran on an America First “anti-interventionist” campaign—before launching two forever wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, with an $8 trillion price tag. Obama criticized these quagmires, and then doubled down with deployments to Syria. Despite declaring a withdrawal from Iraq in 2011, thousands of troops remained there until most of them were driven out by the threat of Iranian missile strikes.

Likewise, Trump criticized Biden’s war in Ukraine, and cast the Democrats as the party of warmongers, only to follow suit in his second term. Had Kamala Harris won the 2024 election, it is very likely that the same war would be playing out in more or less the same way. After all, Trump’s bellicose ravings against Iran are usually the only thing to receive bipartisan ovations from Congress.

Imperialist plots against Iran

Every administration since Jimmy Carter has sought to weaken or overthrow the Islamic Republic of Iran. Over the years, policy papers from institutions like the RAND Corporation and the Brookings Institution outlined scenarios for regaining US control after the Shah was driven out in 1979. These all proposed regime change by escalating pressure over time: sanctions, covert destabilization, proxy warfare, and eventually direct confrontation, if necessary.

American strategists convinced themselves that the Iranian population was fundamentally pro-US and would welcome the overthrow of the government in Tehran. Some analysts even claimed that up to 80% of the population would support regime change spearheaded by Washington. In other words, the architects of imperialist policy began to believe their own shameless propaganda.

This mirrors earlier disasters. In Iraq, US planners convinced themselves that American troops would be greeted as liberators. In Afghanistan, they believed a puppet government could rule indefinitely through military occupation. Neither of those assumptions materialized.

US “decapitation strikes” and indiscriminate bombings in today’s war have not triggered a wave of popular uprisings to bring a pro-Western government into power. The opposite happened: the Iranian people have rallied in defense of their country from the brutal foreign invasion.

Ukraine 2.0

The present conflict bears striking similarities to another recent adventure by US imperialism: the war in Ukraine.
Under Biden, US imperialism provoked the Ukraine proxy war against Russia in a desperate gamble. Their aim was to exhaust Russia militarily, strangle it economically through sanctions, and if possible, achieve regime change in Moscow. The installation of a pro-Washington regime in Moscow would isolate China and position the US for a more favorable confrontation. But the wager backfired and achieved the opposite result, draining Western equipment and munitions, exposing NATO’s weakness, and deepening Russo-Chinese ties.

After blaming Biden for starting a war that “never would have happened” on his watch, Trump doubled down on Biden’s disastrous mistake. Trump’s Iran War is merely Act II of the same worldwide drama: Trump rolled the dice, hoping to secure a Venezuela-style regime change in Tehran. This, too, backfired. Far from counteracting the decline of US imperialism, these wars of choice have only sped up the process.

The point is that, in this period of declining capitalism, the choices facing the US ruling class are all bad. No capitalist power can simply withdraw from the world arena. The economic logic of capitalism compels every major state to compete for markets, resources, and strategic advantage as a matter of survival. “Retrenchment” into a sort of “fortress America” is easier said than done. The system demands intervention, lest that ground fall into the hands of its competitors.

A war without an exit

The US has no clear path to victory. Iran is not Gaza. It is not Venezuela. For the Iranian regime, this is an existential war. They will cease to exist if they lose—so they have no alternative but to fight to the end.

Having launched the intervention with promises of quick success, Trump has been left with no credible off-ramps. So he continues to escalate, since admitting he’s a loser is never an option in his world. But every US-Israeli escalation, such as attacks on energy and nuclear infrastructure, is faced with Iranian tit-for-tat counterescalation.

If the United States cannot decisively defeat Iran, its military dominance will lose further credibility. It already faces shortages of key munitions and air defenses that its lagging industry may never be able to replace. US-supplied missile interceptors have started to run out as Israel’s cities take unprecedented damage, and the “Iron Dome” has proven quite penetrable. Whereas US bases once offered a relative guarantee of security in the Middle East, they now represent the opposite for the Gulf States.

The credibility of American diplomacy, such as it was, has also taken a nosedive. In Iran, Russia, and Venezuela, negotiations were accompanied by the bombing, killing, attempted assassination, or kidnapping of those country’s leaders or negotiators, along with other CIA meddling. Why would any other country negotiate with or trust any promise made by these gangsters? Increasingly, other countries see China and Russia as the more reasonable imperialist powers to deal with, compared to the US.

Above all, energy and economic catastrophe will ensue from Iran’s chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz, increasing the pressure on Trump to end the conflict. As with every imperialist war, ordinary people will foot the bill in the form of inflation, shortages, and economic dislocation—not to mention all the death and destruction on the ground. In short, US imperialism faces a strategic defeat like nothing it has ever suffered.

This war doesn’t benefit American workers, who have more in common with the workers and oppressed of Iran and every other country, than they do with the Epstein class at home and abroad.

Our position in this conflict is clear: communists unconditionally defend Iran against US imperialist aggression. A defeat of US-Israel in this conflict will mean a victory for workers across the globe. It will prepare further radicalization and upheaval within US society, which the Revolutionary Communists of America will harness to the fullest to build the party that will overthrow imperialism in the belly of the beast.

US imperialism out of Iran and the Middle East!

No war but the class war!

Down with imperialism!

Workers of the world unite!