As the 2026 midterms approach, cracks are beginning to widen in MAGA’s electoral coalition.
When Trump was reelected, he promised to “Make America Great Again” for both the capitalists and the working class. The problem, of course, is that no man can serve two masters. That means Trump’s right-wing populism is inherently unstable. As we predicted in November 2024:
Trump has overpromised, and given the crisis of the system, he will be forced to underdeliver. In fact, if implemented, many of his proposals—such as mass deportations and sky-high tariffs—will only exacerbate the problems, and millions may end up with buyer’s remorse.
Trump rode to power on the economy and immigration. Since then, we’ve seen “Liberation Day” chaos, a shaky job market, and ICE terror. Trump’s net approval rating for his top issues hit second-term lows last month, according to YouGov. In fact, Trump’s net approval on the economy is -23%, his lowest in either term.
Likewise, a New York Times/Siena Poll finds Trump’s overall net job approval at -16%. Meanwhile, Gallup announced it will no longer track the president’s job performance ratings after 88 years.
Image: New York times/Sienna Polls
Many Black and Latino voters, who Democrats took for granted in the past, supported Trump’s reelection bid. After Harris’s defeat, the liberal press bemoaned how ethnic minorities, especially Latino men, were “turning to the right.” But by the end of last year, Axios reported that 84% of Black Americans and 70% of Latinos think the US is heading in the wrong direction. Only 16% and 30%, respectively, hold favorable views of Trump.
Even more, both groups overwhelmingly disapproved of the president’s handling of immigration raids and deportations. In the wake of the murders of Renee Good and Alex Pretti, YouGov has consistently found that more Americans say they would support abolishing ICE (46%) than would oppose it (41%).
Among those alienated by ICE terror are gun-rights advocates. Federal authorities almost immediately labeled Alex Pretti, who had a legal permit to carry his 9mm pistol, a “domestic terrorist.” Trump himself said that Pretti “should not have been carrying a gun.” Now, the National Association for Gun Rights is worried that Republicans will lose swing districts in November. It’s no surprise, as 61% of voters think the Trump administration has not given an honest account of the fatal shooting.
All of this coincides with the release of the latest tranche of Epstein files, fanning the flames of distrust in the whole rotten system. According to Reuters/Ipsos polling, just over half of Americans said that the Epstein files “lowered their trust in the country’s political and business leaders.” Moreover, three in four believe “it is definitely or probably true that the federal government is hiding information about the alleged clients of Epstein.”
The chickens are coming home to roost for the Trump administration. Marjorie Taylor Greene and Thomas Massie’s defections over the Epstein fiasco are likely just the first losses in a rolling crisis for the entire ruling class.
The economic outlook promises even more problems for the MAGA coalition. For the first time in decades, the US had a net negative migration in 2025. Because of declining population growth, this is sure to put downward pressure on both the labor market and US consumption. And while official inflation figures leveled out at 2.4% in January, economists anticipate that the worst of post-tariff inflation is yet to come.
In the absence of a working-class alternative, all this signals a Democratic Party resurgence in the midterms. But Democrats are just as incapable of salvaging American capitalism in decline. What the workers need is neither establishment liberalism nor “left-wing” populism, but a revolutionary communist solution to end the see-saw of American politics once and for all.