“El Niño” is officially here, but this may only be the beginning of a dangerously supercharged weather event. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts a 63% possibility of a very strong or “Super El Niño” starting between November and January.
El Niño is the warm phase of a natural climate pattern across the tropical Pacific Ocean that emerges from variations in winds and sea surface temperatures. The phenomenon affects global temperatures, atmospheric circulation, precipitation levels, and other key variables that play a major role in weather and agricultural production.
The world’s oceans act like a battery, absorbing immense amounts of heat from the atmosphere and 91% of greenhouse gas emissions. The warmer the ocean, the stronger the El Niño—which means that capitalist-driven climate change intensifies these weather phenomena. The hottest year on record was 2024, and 2026 is likely to surpass it.
Boosted by this heat, El Niño could potentially lead to serious problems for millions of workers, who can’t retreat to doomsday bunkers. Heavier atmospheric river events in California, heavy rainfall across the Southwest, and coastal erosion along both the Pacific and the Atlantic seaboards could lead to extreme floods, mudslides, and hurricane-level winds. The northern US could also see drier winters and longer heatwaves, amplifying devastating droughts and wildfires, like the ones experienced last year in Canada.
The picture is even starker globally. For major agricultural exporters like India, Indonesia, Brazil, and Australia, experts anticipate major heatwaves and droughts, with failing monsoon seasons in some regions and devastating floods in others. The resulting crop failures would only deepen the food crisis already triggered by fertilizer shortages resulting from the Iran War. In short, a Super El Niño could pose an existential threat for over 500 million small farmers.
150 years ago, a Super El Niño led to the Global Famine of 1876–78, resulting in 50 million deaths. Today, the science to mitigate the impact of extreme weather events exists. Climate-smart agriculture practices could help ensure production can resist the climactic shifts. Micro-irrigation and crop diversification could cut across the problems posed by droughts.
A massive program of public works could employ millions and rebuild our cities in a more rational way. This could include natural cooling mechanisms such as trees and parks, as well as other technical solutions: new pavement sealants that reflect light for lower heat absorption; quality insulation and electrochromic glazing in glass to optimize energy efficiency in all buildings; living shoreline management techniques to reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide and defend against erosion; etc.
However, as long as the billionaires own and control the means of production, none of these measures will be implemented at the scale and scope required. Extreme weather events like Super El Niño are becoming the new normality. Under the capitalist system of anarchic production, motivated by short-term profit and vicious competition, there is no solution to the climate crisis.
A complete global overhaul of all infrastructure and methods of production is needed. For this, the working class must take control of the means of production and run them democratically in the interests of society—and the future of our species.