According to the UN’s World Food Programme, “The total number of people around the world facing acute levels of hunger could reach record numbers in 2026 if the escalation in the Middle East continues to destabilize the world’s economy.”
While the US will likely avoid the famine threatening poorer countries, a tsunami of inflation is barreling toward American shores. Grocery prices have already surged by 2.9% since last year, and about 30% since 2020. Vegetables are up 44% in the last three months, and coffee has risen at an annual rate of 22%.
Prices will only increase further as the consequences of the Iran war play out. Supply shocks in oil, natural gas, and fertilizer mean higher costs for farmers—in turn, driving up the cost of food.
The situation will worsen when crops planted this spring are harvested in the fall. There is a roughly six-month lag in the effect input costs have on grocery prices. According to food economist David Ortega of Michigan University, the American economy will only feel the full impact of the war in 2027.
A fossil-fuel dependent food system
The world’s population has exploded since World War II, from around 2.3 billion in 1945 to 8.3 billion today. If average crop yields had remained at early–20th century levels, feeding the present population would require 50% of the world’s arable land, rather than the 15% currently under cultivation.
This population growth was made possible by modern farming techniques, which rely on widespread use of synthetic fertilizers. According to analyst Mike Adams, “Without these fossil fuel–derived fertilizer inputs, crop yields plummet by roughly 50%.”
Synthetic nitrogen fertilizers like ammonium nitrate and urea require natural gas as feedstock, accounting for 40% of their cost. Before the war, Qatar alone supplied 20% of the world’s liquified natural gas. The Gulf States also supplied 45% of the most widely used fertilizer, urea, while a third of the world’s supply of all fertilizer passed through the Hormuz Strait. The Strait’s closure and the partial destruction of oil and gas facilities have virtually halted fertilizer exports from the Gulf.
The US is short 35% of its normal spring supply. The American Farm Bureau Federation reports that since the war began, “Nitrogen fertilizer prices have risen more than 30%, while combined fuel and fertilizer costs have increased roughly 20% to 40%.” Global scarcity will push natural gas and fertilizer prices even higher in the coming months.
Due to higher fertilizer prices, farmers are swapping out corn for soybeans, which require no nitrogenous fertilizer. Forbes reports that 1 to 1.5 million acres may make the switch in the coming period. This comes on top of a nearly five million acre pre-war shift away from corn.
Beef production relies on corn feed, meaning the decline in corn will have big repercussions for the price of beef—a staple protein for Americans. In part due to a 75-year low in the US cattle herd, average ground beef prices had already reached an all-time high of $6.74 per pound in February, up from $3.99 in 2020. As a result, Forbes predicts the average family “will be spending $602.68 a year more than they did six years ago.”
Energy shortages affect not only feed and fertilizer, but also the diesel that fuels farm equipment and the trucks that transport food. US diesel reserves are at their lowest in 20 years. Farm diesel prices have risen 46% since the war, from $3.72 in February to $5.33 in May, putting even more inflationary pressure on groceries.
A recipe for class struggle
According to a Farm Bureau poll, six out of ten American farmers reported “worsening finances” and 70% can’t “afford all the fertilizer they need.” Though some pre-ordered fertilizer before the war, many waited till planting time, planning to use cash from Trump’s $12 billion farm bailout.
The president is floundering and completely out of touch. His true attitude toward working-class suffering came out in a contemptuous statement that, in the Iran negotiations: “I don’t think about Americans’ financial situation. I don’t think about anybody.” But he won’t be able to ignore the problem much longer.
The coming explosion in food prices will inevitably spur widespread radicalization as workers are forced to defend our standard of living. Two-thirds of Americans live paycheck to paycheck. Many workers are already cutting back on groceries, while 39% report relying on credit cards to buy food. Massive grocery inflation will not only accelerate the ongoing exodus away from Trump, but also fuel hatred of the capitalist system he defends.