American and Israeli imperialism are dragging the whole world towards disaster. Not only have they butchered at least 7,000 people and injured over 46,000 more across the Gulf region; not only have they pushed the world economy to the edge of the precipice, but now the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz threatens a food crisis of catastrophic proportions where millions could die.

Back in March, the UN’s World Food Programme warned that upwards of 45 million people could be driven into a state of acute hunger as a result of the Strait of Hormuz’s closure. This would only be adding to the 318 million around the world who are already on the edge of starvation.

[Originally published on Marxist.com]

The Strait of Hormuz

The entire world has come to depend on the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage of just a few dozen kilometers. In the interdependent, globalized world economy, it has become a chokepoint for huge quantities of critical commodities, particularly energy. 20% of the world’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) and 25% of all seaborne oil trade passes through the Strait annually.

But the Strait is not just a key route for fuel; 16 million tons of fertilizer—roughly one third of the globally traded amount—also pass through every year.

Roughly half the world’s food production depends on nitrogen fertilizers (of which urea is the most widely used). The Gulf states dominate in the export of these vital raw materials. Half of the world’s sulfur, a third of its urea, and a quarter of its ammonia (derived from LNG) are now cut off. The Qatar Fertiliser Company (QAFCO) alone was producing 14% of the global supply of urea. In March, after LNG facilities were bombed—repairs are estimated to take 3–5 years—its plants were forced to shut down. Production has still not recovered.

With both fertilizers and fuel cut, a perfect storm has been prepared. This is on top of the combined shock of COVID-19 and the Ukraine War, which caused the highest single-year spike in food prices since the 1973 oil crisis.

Already, the consequences of this reach far and wide. In India, LNG shortages have pushed the state to order fertilizer-producing plants to significantly reduce their production. In neighboring Bangladesh, four of the five state-owned fertilizer plants have been brought to a complete halt. These will take many weeks to reach full capacity once they do start producing again.

There are alternative sources for fertilizer—namely Russia and China, the two largest producers. However, both of these countries have imposed significant limits on fertilizer exports, prioritizing the security of their domestic stock.

The effects of all this is that with intense competition over diminishing supplies, prices are up everywhere. So far, the world market prices for fertilizer have risen approximately 80%.

The impact on agriculture

Over the past decade, farmers have been crushed between rocketing input prices and falling crop prices. This combination has forced them into debt or wiped them out entirely. In the US, for example, 160,000 farms have closed over the last decade. Bankruptcies shot up by 46% in 2025 alone. All across Europe, meanwhile, it has led to mobilizations and blockades by farmers demanding subsidies.

But the Iran War is creating an impossible situation for small farmers. We have seen the political consequences of this already in Ireland, where farm vehicles blockaded Dublin city center for almost a week, their owners declaring they “can’t afford to move.”

In the US, a survey by the American Farm Bureau Federation found that 70% of US farmers cannot afford all the fertilizer they need this season. One farmer from Illinois told the Financial Times, “This fall’s going to be scary […] Guys will start to use less fertilizer and yields will go down.”

Farmers everywhere are facing a very difficult dilemma: they are either fronting up for fertilizer and energy and losing money; planting without fertilizer, shrinking their yields and damaging the soil; or not planting at all. Whatever they do will have a dramatic effect on the world food supply come harvest.

Many are choosing the latter. In Australia, which exports food for 75 million people, analysts forecast that the area of land planted with wheat could be reduced by up to 20%—an area roughly the size of Belgium.

And these are the wealthy capitalist countries. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization reports that in sub-Saharan Africa, just a 10% reduction in fertilizer availability could reduce maize, rice and wheat output by up to 25%.

Continued fertilizer shortages mean that bad harvests will carry over into 2027 if soil nutrients can’t be replenished later this year.

To top it all off, scientists are predicting the most violent El Niño weather event in decades, bringing with it extreme heat and intense flooding. The last El Niño in 2024 wiped out half of Southern Africa’s harvest.

In the meantime, agribusiness monopolies are making a killing. The CEO of CF Industries, the world’s biggest producer of ammonia, has boasted that this crisis will “create substantial value for long-term shareholders.”

The working class will pay

The full effects of this disaster won’t hit until after the harvest later this year. But even so, the working class of the world is beginning to feel the effects. The US Department of Agriculture forecasts a 3.4% increase in food prices in 2026, on top of the 30% rise since 2023. The cost of beef is expected to rise beyond the all-time high it reached in 2025, as corn feed becomes more scarce.

In Britain—which imports almost half of its food—grocery prices are on track to rise to 50% higher than they were five years ago. Worse still, the British government is anticipating not just price rises, but shortages of staple proteins like chicken and pork later in the year.

With 16% of households already experiencing food insecurity; with three million already skipping meals to save money; with food bank usage already at record levels, this will push millions more towards desperation. The government is currently holding crisis meetings, anticipating that this latest shock will lead to mass protests through the summer.

If the situation is dire in these advanced capitalist countries, then it is infinitely worse in the countries suffering under their domination. There, the crisis is compounded by the fact that the World Food Programme, which supported 150 million starving people around the world, recently had its budget gutted by Trump. Its director described the cuts as a “death sentence for millions.” Meanwhile, the Pentagon has spent $25 billion on nine weeks of war against Iran.

Year-on-year food inflation has already risen sharply in much of Asia and Africa—over 4% in India; 9% in Bangladesh; 13% in Ethiopia; and 16% in Nigeria. In countries where people frequently spend the majority of their income on food, even minor price fluctuations can have a profound impact. As a result, the Food and Agriculture Organisation projects that in Nigeria alone, 4.1 million people will enter acute hunger in 2026.

Meanwhile in Sudan—which has already suffered two years of famine, and where two in five adults are experiencing crisis levels of food insecurity—they have warned that overall food production could fall by “not less than 40%.”

The worst, however, is yet to come.

Capitalism is endangering humanity

Inflation, food shortages, famine: a real catastrophe is on the horizon. The interdependence of global supply chains guarantees that this crisis will be felt in every corner of the globe.

We must be clear: this is entirely avoidable. This is a product of imperialist war, climate change, and an economic system which is oriented towards profit rather than human need: i.e. capitalism.

The means to solve this crisis already exist. We produce an abundance of food: the US National Institutes of Health estimates that the world produces an average of 2,750 calories of food per person per day, which is more than enough—even once you account for industrial wastage. This is produced through an immense, complex division of labor, with supply chains spread across the entire planet.

On this basis, well-meaning humanitarians appeal to international law and global institutions to intervene to protect the most vulnerable. But capitalism has proven itself incapable of doing so—the entire system is rotten to the core.

On the one hand, this immense food production is privately owned and run in the interests of profit. The ruling class—that is, the billionaires, the financial oligarchy, the capitalists—are happy to let millions of people die, so long as their wealth keeps growing. They cut public spending and drive the working class into such desperation that, even in an advanced capitalist country like the US, one in four adults struggle to feed themselves.

On the other hand, the ruling classes of different countries cannot come together to solve this crisis, even if they wanted to—because capitalism forces them into direct competition with one another. The conflicting interests of individual nation states are reflected in periodic price shocks and supply shortages.

To put an end to this status quo where nine million people starve to death each year, world food production needs to be reorganized according to need and not profit. To achieve this what is required is to wrest the levers of the economy out of the hands of the capitalists and put them into the hands of the working class across the world. Once the power of the capitalist class has been broken, war between the nations would cease and the immense resources of the planet could be planned.

In order to save millions of people from death and starvation, it is the capitalist system that must die. This is not an abstract slogan—it is the urgent task facing the whole of humanity.